NHL Realignment

Oh, you had to open this can of worms while I was at work, didn't you? Realignment is a subject I've given a lot of thought to, and have been going back and forth on the pros and cons here for quite some time.

The way I see it, there is an overarching alignment decision, three possible plans within each, and two or three complications to each.

The overarching decision: Keep the East/West divide (and continue the West's inherent travel issues + difficulty of placing DET/CMB/NAS), or scrap that and go to a North/South setup (which spreads out the East/West travel more equitably, makes placing those three teams easier, but causes SERIOUS issues if any further realignment is required.)
The plans: Scrap Divisions (Conference only), 8/7/8/7 breakdown, or 6 5-team divisions.
The complications: Moving Winnipeg requires one conference shift in each plan, but there are multiple credible teams to shift. Further, it is not clear whether Phoenix, Dallas, Florida, and the New York Islanders are going to remain in place, due to ownership and fanbase concerns. If any move, their relocation will impact realignment just as severely as Winnipeg's does, with an equal chance of counterbalancing it or making it even more lopsided.

With that laid out, here are some ideas.

First, presume we stick with an East/West divide.

The simplest plan is to scrap divisions entirely, and decide upon one team to move. In this case, the argument for Nashville goes away, as their reason to move was geographic compactness within the Southeast Division, which no longer exists. The question then becomes Columbus, the only EST team in the West and therefore the one that makes geographic sense, or Detroit, which has been desperate for a return since getting stuck in the West? In this case, I think Detroit gets the nod, because it's a hell of a lot easier to deal with the fallout of pissing off the 5,000 diehard fans in Columbus than the widespread, significant fanbase of one of the Original 6 teams. Also, the gains made by giving Columbus Pittsburgh as a natural rival pale in comparison to reuniting Detroit and Toronto. (And at this point, I think it's time to start using the team codes instead of spelling the locations out.)

Now, this can still be complicated by other teams moving. WPG for DET happens IF PHX and DAL stay put or move to locations further west than CMB. If one of those teams ends up in Quebec (or, less likely, Hamilton or Hartford), then WPG switches with QUE and DET stays put. Further, if FLA or NYI have to move West, their location matters. If one goes to KC, LV, SEA, MIL, or HOU (all proposed locations) then DET AND either CMB or a Western team that moves to QUE will head East. I'm not getting into what happens if all four team move, since that's unconscionably unlikely.

ANYWAY. That all boils down to WPG for DET, barring further team movement. A West team going East would supersede DET, an East team going West would provide room for CMB as well.

From this point forward, the calculus gets way too complicated if we incorporate further teams moving, so I'm presuming everyone stays where they are for now. I'll address this again if a team is announced as moving.

Next, the 8/7 8/7 plan. In this case, we're still looking at geographic regions, but we have some flexibility as to which division is the 8, and which the 7, in each conference. The obvious alignment here is a Northern and Southern division in each conference, which gives the following situation:

North East: MTL, TOR, OTT, BUF, BOS
South East: TB, FL, CAR, WAS, PIT, PHI
Could go either East: DET, NJ, NYI, NYR

North West: VAN, CGY, EDM, WPG, CHI, MIN, CMB
South West: PHX, LA, ANA, SJ, NAS, DAL
Could go either West: STL, COL

Now, in the East, DET wants to be back with the O6 teams, which implies North, but that breaks up the NYR/NYI/NJ cluster, and makes no sense. However, neither does losing the PHI rivalries with NYR/NJ. This is the tricky part, and the best solution is for the Islanders to move to Quebec, putting DET and QUE in the north, and NYR/NJ in the south. Without that flexibility, the best I have is this:
NE: MTL, TOR, OTT, BUF, BOS, DET, NYR, NYI
SE: TB, FL, CAR, WAS, PIT, PHI, NJ

The West is cleaner. STL and COL both feel like Northern teams, but they're actually about on a parallel with SJ, so south they go.
NW: VAN, CGY, EDM, WPG, CHI, MIN, CMB
SW: PHX, LA, ANA, SJ, NAS, DAL, STL, COL

If for some reason CMB moves East over DET, then CMB goes into the SE, NJ to the NE, and DET into the NW

OK, 5/5/5 5/5/5 now! YAAAAY! For this, I'm not naming the divisions. Presume we're going back to Adams, Patrick, Norris, Smythe, and we'd need two more names, so Richard and Howe. (Feel free to argue over the names, I don't feel like it.)

East
D1: MTL, TOR, OTT, DET, BUF (All the Eastern Canadian teams, plus three of the O6. Nice and compact, and tons of history. BUF being closer to the Great Lakes brings them in over BOS.)
D2: NYR, NYI, NJ, PHI, BOS (With BOS needing a new division, the Northeast Corridor of I-95 becomes the unifying factor here. PIT gets the shaft, but ours not to reason why.)
D3: TB, FLA, CAR, WAS, PIT (Bettman creams. Crosby, Ovechkin, and Stamkos in the same division?)

West
D1: VAN, CGY, EDM, WPG, MIN (The four Canadian teams plus the furthest northern team left. Nearly guarantees at least one Canadian team in the playoffs every year.)
D2: DAL, STL, CHI, CMB, NAS (Maximum geographic compactness, Western Conference Style. Nobody in this division particularly likes it, but unless they can box up their states and move them closer to where they'd rather be, this is it.)
D3: SJ, LA, ANA, PHX, COL (COL is sacrificed on the altar of geography. Again, their only hope here is to pack up the mountains and start moving.)

Of these plans, I like the 8/7 the best, especially since it enables expansion (which you just know Bettman wants) or contraction (ha, as if) without a wholesale re-realignment. Just add the new team to the 7 division, or move one team from the 8 to make space, to get to 8-all. Or, contract, and if needed, move one from the 8 team to the other to make them 7-all.

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Now, what happens to alignment if we decide to scrap the East/West, and go to a Northern/Southern conference structure?

First, we have to see what the conferences look like. Once we have that plan, we can see about divisions.

North: VAN, CGY, EDM, WPG, MTL, TOR, OTT, BOS, BUF, MIN, CHI, DET, NYI, NYR, NJ
South: SJ, LA, ANA, PHX, COL, DAL, STL, NAS, CAR, TB, FLA, WAS, CMB, PHI, PIT

As a Flyers fan, it sucks losing the NY teams, but that's the cutoff. This one's much easier right now, but it gets difficult if one of the Southern teams (as at least three of them are in a bit of trouble) decide to move to Seattle, Milwaukee, Hartford, Hamilton, or Quebec City. (Kansas City, Las Vegas, and Houston would not be problems.) Then one of the Greater NY teams, most likely the Devils, or one of CHI or DET, would have to go South, which isn't an optimal solution. (Wouldn't be so bad if PHX went to QUE at the same time as NYI going to KC, though; then just switch them.)

Anyway, what about a division structure? There are two options.

For the 8/7/8/7, it gets ugly, as the East/West divide is a bit awkward, and it nearly defeats the purpose of putting DET in the same conference as TOR. In the South, it makes more sense to go with a Central/Deep South split.

North
E: MTL, TOR, OTT, BUF, BOS, NYR, NYI, NJ
W: DET, CHI, MIN, WPG, VAN, CGY, EDM
South (V.1)
E: PHI, PIT, WAS, CMB, NAS, CAR, TB, FLA
W: SJ, LA, ANA, PHX, COL, DAL, STL
South (V.2)
Central: PHI, PIT, WAS, CMB, STL, CAR, COL
Deep South: SJ, LA, ANA, PHX, DAL, TB, FLA, NAS

Now, in the 5/5/5 5/5/5, we get something a bit more rational.

North
D1: MTL, TOR, OTT, DET, CHI
D2: BOS, BUF, NYR, NYI, NJ
D3: VAN, CGY, EDM, WPG, MIN
South
D1: PHI, PIT, STL, CMB, WAS
D2: TB, FLA, CAR, DAL, NAS
D3: SJ, LA, ANA, PHX, COL

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All that is by way of saying that (aka tl;dr) there are two reasonably good options for realignment here, barring the elimination of divisions, which I don't think anyone wants: Either go to the 8/7/8/7 split in the East/West structure, or go with a North/South structure of 6 5-team divisions.

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