Copied from FoxSports.com:
The numbers underneath the record are: BCS points/Harris poll/USA Today poll/Computer rankings.
1. Florida (11-0)
.9664 1 1 2
2. Alabama (11-0)
.9614 3 3 1
3. Texas (11-0)
.9263 2 2 4
4. TCU (11-0)
.8699 4 4 5
5. Cincinnati (10-0)
.8591 5 5 3
6. Boise State (11-0)
.7834 6 6 7*
7. Georgia Tech (10-1)
.7756 7 7 6
8. Oregon (9-2)
.6724 10 10 7*
9. Pittsburgh (9-1)
.6638 9 9 9
10. Ohio State (10-2)
.6523 8 8 11
*Boise State and Oregon are in a dead heat in the computer polls, even though Oregon's a two loss team that Boise State beat to open the season.
Texas, who is already behind Cincinnati in the computers, plays Texas A&M, who is unranked in the BCS standings (BCSGuru.com has the 43 teams this season who have scored points in the BCS) and then Nebraska (who is just outside the top 25 in 26th place in BCS points).
TCU, who has to leap BOTH Texas and Cincinnati to get to third, and presumably in front of the loser of the Alabama/Florida game, has just New Mexico left on their schedule - which means that for terms of this discussion, they're out unless two teams lose.
The computers love Cincinnati - as well as they should, and they haven't even played Pittsburgh yet. Beating Pitt is a bigger win than Texas being OK State or Oklahoma - hell, Houston accomplished one and BYU got the other. Pitt, in fact, had a terrible loss to NC State, otherwise the Big East would have two undefeated teams going up against one another.
If Cincinnati wins against Pitt, they're in the National Championship game. The Big 12 South isn't nearly as impressive this year as in the past. Texas would be an undeserving team, who should play better non-conference opponents than Louisiana-Monroe and Central Florida.
If we're sizing it all up, Florida has played 6 teams in the BCS standings. (Troy 41, Tennessee 42, Kentucky T-43, LSU 15, Arkansas 34, and Alabama 2)
Alabama has played 8 teams in the BCS standings. (Virginia Tech 14, Arkansas 34, Kentucky T-43, Mississippi 25, Tennessee 42, LSU 15, Auburn 39 and Florida 1)
Texas has played 5 teams in the BCS standings. (Texas Tech 38, Oklahoma 40, Missouri T-43, Oklahoma State 12, and Nebraska 26)
TCU has played 3 teams in the BCS standings. (Clemson 18, BYU 19, Utah 21)
Cincinnati has played 4 teams in the BCS standings, all of whom are better wins than Texas, excepting OK State. (Oregon State 16, South Florida 31, West Virginia 30, and Pittsburgh 9)
Three computer polls have Cincinnati ranked #2, behind Alabama. In fact, Cincinnati's #3 in the computers only because one computer has Florida ranked #1 with Cincinnati #5. In the case of the computers, it's clearcut - Alabama's #1 across the board, with their strength of schedule.
In fact, one computer has Georgia Tech ranked in front of Texas.
Texas will continue to require that the voters have a hard on for that mediocre, generic team because the computers realize that it's puffed up by a weak schedule and having the former glory of the Big 12 behind them.
So, to summarize: Cincinnati just needs to win out and they're playing for a national title. It will be the winner of Florida/Alabama vs. Cincinnati, unless something really crazy happens.
Crazy scenario 1: Cincinnati jobs to Pittsburgh. In that case, Pittsburgh's schedule the remainder of the year of West Virginia and Cincinnati will make them stronger in the computers than Texas, TCU, Cincinnati or Boise State. They would leapfrog all the way to #3 in the computers (passing Georgia Tech on the way up) and would have an outside shot at being a one-loss team arguing for inclusion over a no-loss Texas team.
Crazy scenario 2: Texas loses to Texas A&M or Nebraska. Texas' season is then over - no national title game for you. The question is who would then take over as the opponent of the Florida/Alabama winner. If scenario 1 doesn't happen, it's Cincy. If it does, it's TCU.
Getting out there into the realm of the wacky, we have Crazy Scenario 3: Florida loses to Florida State or Alabama loses to Auburn. If this happens such that both teams are one-loss teams, the national title game may be Texas-Cincinnati - and if you had that in the pool before the season began, well, you're an asshole.
As much as I mark out for Boise State, here's the scenario that would have to occur for them to even get with a jockstrap's sniff of the title game:
Florida and Alabama both have a loss. Texas wins out. TCU drops a game to New Mexico, Cincy loses to Pitt, and Oregon has to beat Oregon State. Even then, you could make a case that a one-loss Florida or Alabama team is better than Boise State (although I wouldn't agree with you). That would set up Texas-Boise State for the championship.
....I don't see it happening.
