TCO Fantasy Baseball 2012

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BigJohnStudd
bloop26
Smudge

[thebigticket69]

im confident in hamilton as long as he's injury free, which of course is a big question mark, so i love what im getting now, if it stops, that's the breaks. if he's healthy i dont see him dropping off too much. cargo was the #1 player 2 seasons ago so i think if he's anywhere close to that he's gonna be an awesome asset all year. castro is greatly helping in all but HRs, but i can settle for that with the guys i have. kinda worried that beltran will slow down, a lot of my pitchers will probably regress, but i can always pick up new ones that are hot and even if beltran slows down he's still gonna be good. he's always an injury risk as well but i can't worry about something uncontrollable such as those.


all in all i am happy with everyone, i hope longoria can get back sooner than later and he doesnt run into any issues where he's out longer than the planned 2 months, and i hope i can get some solid production out of morse.

yadier molina has slowed down as of late, and he's been having his own injury issues and racking up 2-3 dnp's last week, i expect 1-2 at absolute most with him, but it happens. worse comes to worse i find a hot catcher at the time and just keep streaming catchers til i find one worth keeping, not an urgent position

[kbjone]

With six weeks in the books, it's prediction time. (Averages will be calculated using 5.5 weeks, due to Week 1's shortness)

Week 7 games:

I Suck vs Banditos: Banditos hopes to recover from a 9-1 thrashing last week, while I Suck's "unusual" drafting strategy has them in the Top 4 coming into this week.

Major Advantages:
I Suck is outscoring Banditos by over 6 runs per week (33.6 to 27.2), and outstealing them by a 2/1 ratio (5.5 to 2.7).

Advantages:
I Suck hold minor advantages in RBI (28.6-27.3), AVG (.283-.281), Wins (2.6-1.6), Saves (2.2-1.5), Ks (35.3-33.5), ERA (3.93-4.25), and WHIP (1.35-1.42)

Banditos have the edge in HRs (6.9-6.0).

Notes:

Keep in mind three things: Banditos is coming off a disasterous week in almost all stats, I Suck needs Atlanta to NOT suck, and Banditos may get dual starts from three/four starters this week. The "counting" pitching stats (Wins/Ks) should go to the Banditos, barring some major problems. Other than that, it's anybdy's game.

Prediction: While the season stats say 9-1 (+/- 2 swing stats), the schedule says something in the middle, 6-4 or 5-5. Saves and averages (AVG, ERA, WHIP) will be the swing stats.

[kbjone]

Jose vs. Pain: Jose's coming off a 9-1 beatdown of Derelicts to climb into second, while Pain's still at the bottom despite a 5-3 win over C's.

The matchup looks all-Jose, with major advantages in HRs (6.9-3.8 ), RBIs (29.6-20.1), AVG (.310-.255), Saves (4.7-1.6), ERA (2.73-3.81), and WHIP (1.08-1.31). The other stats also are Jose's, with the exception of Wins (tied at 15 total).

Pain'll need some help to keep it close, but I see this going at least 7-3 in Jose's favor.


ISO-9000 vs Derelicts: Two teams with opposite week 6 results, as ISO took a 7-1 win, and Derelicts ate a 9-1 loss. Derelicts is 6th, 1.5 games back of 3rd/4th, while ISO still needs some big weeks, currently 6.5 games out the playoffs.

ISO holds major advantages in Runs (30.5-24.7) and ERA (3.25-3.91). Advantages are divided, with ISO getting HRs (8.9-6.9), Steals (5.3-3.6), and WHIP (1.15-1.23), while Derelicts has RBIs (28.1-28.9), AVG (.266-.251), Saves (3.6-4.4), and Ks (38.7-36.6). Wins are even (11 each) coming into the week.

Derelicts does hold a 4-2 edge in pitcher starts through Thursday, but the weekend may decide this one. I'm thinking 6-4 ISO, but there's a lot of wiggle room. A blowout isn't out of reach for either team.

[kbjone]

Homeboys vs Punishment: Both teams come off of negative weeks, but Punishment's 7-1 loss has to hurt more than Homeboys' close 5-4 defeat.

Batting-wise, these teams are nearly identical, other than Homeboys' Steals edge:
(Stat lines are Runs/HR/RBI/SB/AVG)

Homeboys:   25.1/6.7/21.8/5.1/.245
Punishment: 24.0/6.6/22.0/3.3/.248

Pitching goes to Homeboys in the averages (2.62 ERA/1.08 WHIP vs. 3.29 ERA/1.12 WHIP), but to Punishment in the counting stats (3.5 Wins/44.1 Ks vs. 2.0 Wins/38.7 Ks). Saves are slightly to Homeboys, 1.5 to 1.1.

Steals and Saves may give Homeboys a 6-4 edge this week, but it can just as easily go 6-4 to Punishment on Saves and WHIP.


Piperspitt vs Isotopes: Piper's very unhappy with his team's late-week collapse in a 5-5 tie, while Isotopes looks to build on a 5-4 win.

The batting question is: Can Josh Hamilton continue his hot streak? If so, batting may end up a 5-0 sweep for Piper based on his total advantage over Isotopes: (Granted, there are 17 other batters in the two lineups.)

Piperspitt: 28.7/8.4/26.4/4.4/.263
Isotopes:  24.4/6.9/25.3/3.3/.252

Pitching-wise, Isotopes should easily take Saves (3.8-1.5), but will struggle to keep it close in Wins (3.5-3.1), Ks (48.1-39.6), ERA (3.57-4.14), and WHIP (1.26-1.36). Piper's "6 starter" strategy may pay off, as he has four likely getting two starts each this week (Morrow, Dempster, Haren, Lester)

If Josh Hamilton keeps going: 8-2 or 9-1 Piper. If he slumps: Still 6-4 Piper, barring a severe ERA/WHIP collapse.

[kbjone]

And one to go:

RBI vs C's: RBI continues to dominate, using a 9-1 win to open up a 7.5 game lead over second, and put all but second into double-digit GB. C's team lost 5-3, and hopes to keep close to fourth (currently 1 GB).

Runs (34.9-30.2) and Steals (9.6-2.9) are all RBI, but the other three are up for grabs:

RBI: 8.6 HR/29.1 RBI/.276 AVG
C's: 7.1 HR/29.3 RBI/.285 AVG

RBI holds sizable advantages in Saves (4.7-2.9) and ERA (3.03-3.87). Again, three other stats are in play:

RBI: 3.3 Wins/41.6 Ks/1.16 WHIP
C's: 3.6 Wins/41.5 Ks/1.26 WHIP

The four major advantages should keep RBI winning, I'll take 7-3 for this week.

[Buddha Dudley]

Wonderful segment and good read KBJ.  The degenerate gambler in me wants to bet on my own team to cover the Over and parlay that with Piper's Over. Now if anyone was degenerate enough to gamble with me on a weeks action of Fantasy Baseball.

-D

[Doctor Barone]

Definitely enjoyed reading that kbj. Hopefully I can keep my turn around going against Piper this week.

[kbjone]

Week 7 Quick Review:

I Suck 4-4 Banditos: Rarely will I be relieved and pissed at the same time. Well, here's one of those times. This could have easily been an 8-2 rout on his end, or a 6-4 win on my end. But 4-4 is well deserved in the end.

Jose 6-4 Pain: Pitching kept this from being a total rout, as Jose's was poor and Pain's was above average.

ISO-9000 6-3 Derelicts: Two excellent pitching performances, but ISO was that little bit better. 4-0-1 in Pitching will win you almost any week.

Homeboys 0-10 Punishment: OUCH. Not only was this a sweep, it was an outright curbstomping.

Piperspitt 8-1 Isotopes: Josh Hamilton's human... and Piper still won quite convincingly. Mediocre pitching beats bad pitching, and Isotopes couldn't seem to catch any breaks.

RBI'd 5-5 C's Team: If not for an extra digit in the WHIP race (1.265-1.269 to RBI'd), this is a 5-4 win for C's. RBI's batting was poor, and his pitching just saved him from a potential major upset.

[kbjone]

I'll shorten the format for Week 8:
(Averages based on 6.5 weeks. Batting goes R/HR/RBI/SB/AVG. Pitching is W/SV/K/ERA/WHIP)

I Suck: 33.1/5.7/28.3/5.1/.283   2.8/2.2/33.3/3.70/1.32
Isotopes: 24.4/6.8/24.6/3.7/.251   2.6/3.9/40.0/4.33/1.37

Prediction: 6-4 I Suck (+/- 1) If my htting holds, this should look good. If not, oh crap I'm losing.

Jose: 27.7/7.4/30.3/5.9/.301   3.1/4.3/35.9/2.94/1.13
RBI'd: 32.8/8.5/28.8/8.9/.272   3.5/5.1/43.4/3.01/1.18

Prediction: 6-4 RBI'd (+/- 2) Jose's pitching can keep him close... or kill him.

ISO-9000: 29.7/8.9/28.0/5.2/.249   2.5/4.0/38.8/3.05/1.13
Pain:         26.6/4.2/19.5/4.0/.248   2.7/1.4/36.2/3.71/1.31

Prediction: 9-1 ISO-9000 (+/- 1) Just too many severe advantages.

Homeboys: 24.0/6.3/22.6/5.2/.246   1.9/1.4/37.5/2.99/1.15
Derelicts:   25.2/6.6/26.9/4.0/.266   1.9/4.6/40.1/3.65/1.24

Prediction: 6-4 Derelicts (+/- 3) So many tight stats, one good/bad day can swing this matchup drastically.

Pipers:         29.2/8.0/27.9/4.8/.277   3.4/1.2/48.3/3.71/1.26
Punishment: 26.1/8.0/25.4/3.9/.253   3.4/1.5/42.9/3.25/1.13

Prediction: 6-4 Pipers (+/- 3) Advantage Piper, but the swing stats (HR, W, SV) will determine this week.

Banditos: 27.7/6.5/27.1/4.5/.293   1.7/1.7/39.2/4.04/1.38
C's:         30.3/7.4/30.2/3.1/.287   3.7/3.4/43.4/3.75/1.26

Prediction: 7-3 C's (+/- 2) C's have an 8-1 stats edge, but too many "small" advantages leaves the door open for Banditos.

[kbjone]

League Leaders:

Runs: I Suck 215 (RBI'd 213)
HR: ISO-9000 58 (RBI'd 55)
RBI: Jose 197 (C's 196)
SB: RBI'd 58 (Jose 38)
AVG: Jose .301 (Banditos .293)

Wins: C's 24 (RBI'd 23)
SV: RBI'd 33 (Derelicts 30)
Ks: Pipers 314 (RBI'd/C's 282)
ERA: Jose 2.94 (Homeplate 2.99)
WHIP: Jose/Punishment/ISO-9000 1.13

... and the Not Top Ten

Runs: Homeboys 156
HR: Pain 27
RBI: Pain 127
SB: C's 20
AVG: Homeboys .246

Wins: Banditos 11
SV: Pipers 8
Ks: I Suck 217
ERA: Isotopes 4.33
WHIP: Banditos 1.38

[rocky_iwata]

My team's (Jose For Fiddy) two closers blew saves badly. It maybe the time to look for another reliable closer.

[Buddha Dudley]

I have very reliable closers for trade. Everyone can be had!

Sincerely,
The Guy You're Playing This Week.

[SmartAssAssassin]

Week 7 Quick Review:

I Suck 4-4 Banditos: Rarely will I be relieved and pissed at the same time. Well, here's one of those times. This could have easily been an 8-2 rout on his end, or a 6-4 win on my end. But 4-4 is well deserved in the end.

Jose 6-4 Pain: Pitching kept this from being a total rout, as Jose's was poor and Pain's was above average.

ISO-9000 6-3 Derelicts: Two excellent pitching performances, but ISO was that little bit better. 4-0-1 in Pitching will win you almost any week.

Homeboys 0-10 Punishment: OUCH. Not only was this a sweep, it was an outright curbstomping.

Piperspitt 8-1 Isotopes: Josh Hamilton's human... and Piper still won quite convincingly. Mediocre pitching beats bad pitching, and Isotopes couldn't seem to catch any breaks.

RBI'd 5-5 C's Team: If not for an extra digit in the WHIP race (1.265-1.269 to RBI'd), this is a 5-4 win for C's. RBI's batting was poor, and his pitching just saved him from a potential major upset.

Yeah. Once again proof im destined to forever SUCK at TCO fantasy baseball.

[piperspitt]

Two more to the DL for me, this is crazy, I've never experienced this before.

[Rein]

Who has the most Nationals on their team?  That's my pick to win the Fantasy league

[piperspitt]

Who has the most Nationals on their team?  That's my pick to win the Fantasy league

I thought you were a Johnny Damon guy?

[kbjone]

Mike Minor's still haunting my team, even from the f'ing grave of Free Agency.

Thanks for giving my opponent two HRs you worthless prick.

[Rein]

Damon's still my favorite player today, if not ever.  Just wish we had brought him in lol.  But I have to support my Nats. *coughPhilliesSuckcough*

[piperspitt]

Mike Minor's still haunting my team, even from the f'ing grave of Free Agency.

Thanks for giving my opponent two HRs you worthless prick.

You can't have a Minor player in the majors.

[kbjone]

It's Sunday... and I'm going to need Atlanta to stop sucking. Down 10-0, I've conceded the five pitching stats... I can get all five hitting stats IF the bats wake up.

Once again... I'm screwed.

In other games:

Banditos looking good against C's, up 7-1.

Piper up 6-4 on Punishment... should stay that way.

Jose up 5-4 on RBI'd... still a bit of wiggle room there. (Oh, and it looks like hell was unleashed on the RBI Triad... not the other way around.)

Derelicts leading Homeboys 5-3... could be a wild Sunday in that matchup.

Pain leads ISO-9000 4-3... another one going to the wire in most categories.

[kbjone]

Great time to lose seven in a row Atlanta.

[piperspitt]

I thought I was near the end of the injury funk. Damn you Halladay.
I am happy that I clawed my way out of the cellar though.

[Doctor Barone]

Do I get extra points for Johan's no hitter?

[piperspitt]

Nope, the 7 walks kept your WHIP honest. Great for ERA, 7 K's is decent, and a W is always good.

[Doctor Barone]

I know haha, I was just kidding around.

Anyway, I'm glad that the moves I made a few weeks back have paid off. The Isotopes have turned around, at least for the moment.

There are extraordinary men and women and extraordinary moments when history leaps forward on the backs of these individuals. That what can be imagined can be achieved. That you must dare to dream, but that there's no substitute for perseverance and hard work and teamwork because no one gets there alone. –Chris Carter